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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T19:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0945 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 944
Longitude (deg): S10
Latitude (deg): E12
Half-angular width (deg): 41

Notes: Model seems to be exaggerating the density of this CME

Lead Time: 42.23 hour(s)
Difference: -3.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-12-29T21:30Z

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